AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Zuidwest-Gelderland

ProofIndex score 71/100 (High Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 71/100 (High Risk risk).

High Risk is this area's band among covered Netherlands markets, not an expected outcome. Confidence (medium) describes how complete and direct the input data is, not how accurate a prediction would be.

Scoring period 2026-Q3 · medium data confidence

Zuidwest-Gelderland (Netherlands) ranks among the higher-risk markets covered by ProofIndex, with a ProofIndex score of 71/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is employment vulnerability. This measures how exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Key risk drivers

Resilience Factors: 98/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.
Employment Vulnerability: 86/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.
Income Concentration: 86/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Housing Leverage: 75/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Employment Vulnerability: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch sub-regional proxy · Proxy · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Derived from province-level official data and local adjustment factors.
Income Concentration: CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Housing Leverage: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Rental Market Exposure: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Resilience Factors: CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.

Frequently asked questions

Is Zuidwest-Gelderland at risk from AI job losses?

ProofIndex does not forecast job losses. It measures how exposed local incomes are: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing. On that measure, Zuidwest-Gelderland ranks among the more exposed Netherlands markets. It scores 71/100 (High Risk) overall, and 86/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do.

How exposed is the Zuidwest-Gelderland housing market to AI automation?

Zuidwest-Gelderland scores 71/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is employment vulnerability at 86/100. This measures how exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix. Housing leverage scores 75/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 98/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this compares Zuidwest-Gelderland with other Netherlands markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Zuidwest-Gelderland rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 71/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Zuidwest-Gelderland the risk pillars rank employment vulnerability 86/100, income concentration 86/100, housing leverage 75/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

See the full Zuidwest-Gelderland report

Full pillar breakdowns, peer benchmarking, and data sources with confidence ratings.

Generate the full report · Explore on the map

Other Netherlands markets

View all markets