AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Utrecht

ProofIndex score 78/100 (High Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 78/100 — High Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium confidence in the underlying data

Utrecht (Netherlands) ranks among the higher-risk markets ProofIndex tracks, with a ProofIndex score of 78/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is income concentration — how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.

Key risk drivers

Income Concentration — 95/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Housing Leverage — 87/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Employment Vulnerability — 75/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.
Resilience Factors — 60/100
Local economic cushioning — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar is computed from published statistics. These are the sources behind this area's score, with the vintage of each and the limitation we know about it.

Employment Vulnerability — CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch sub-regional proxy · Proxy · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Derived from province-level official data and local adjustment factors.
Income Concentration — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Housing Leverage — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Rental Market Exposure — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Resilience Factors — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.

Frequently asked questions

Is Utrecht at risk from AI job losses?

Relative to other Netherlands markets, yes — Utrecht ranks among the higher-risk markets ProofIndex tracks. It scores 78/100 (High Risk) overall, and 75/100 on employment vulnerability — how much of the local occupation mix overlaps with work today’s AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base sits in work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Utrecht housing market to AI automation?

Utrecht scores 78/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest single contributor is income concentration at 95/100 — how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work. Housing leverage — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers — scores 87/100. Local resilience — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock — scores 60/100 and pulls the composite down. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this ranks Utrecht against other Netherlands markets rather than against markets abroad.

Why is Utrecht rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 78/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Utrecht the risk pillars rank income concentration 95/100, housing leverage 87/100, employment vulnerability 75/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

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