AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Utrecht

ProofIndex score 78/100 (High Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 78/100 — High Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium data confidence

Utrecht (Netherlands) ranks among the higher-risk markets covered by ProofIndex, with a ProofIndex score of 78/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is income concentration. This measures how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.

Key risk drivers

Income Concentration — 95/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Housing Leverage — 87/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Employment Vulnerability — 75/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.
Resilience Factors — 60/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Employment Vulnerability — CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch sub-regional proxy · Proxy · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Derived from province-level official data and local adjustment factors.
Income Concentration — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Housing Leverage — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Rental Market Exposure — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Resilience Factors — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.

Frequently asked questions

Is Utrecht at risk from AI job losses?

Yes. Utrecht ranks among the higher-risk Netherlands markets covered by ProofIndex. It scores 78/100 (High Risk) overall, and 75/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Utrecht housing market to AI automation?

Utrecht scores 78/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is income concentration at 95/100. This measures how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work. Housing leverage scores 87/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 60/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this compares Utrecht with other Netherlands markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Utrecht rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 78/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Utrecht the risk pillars rank income concentration 95/100, housing leverage 87/100, employment vulnerability 75/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

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