AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Noord-Holland

ProofIndex score 64/100 (High Risk) · high confidence

ProofIndex score: 64/100 (High Risk risk).

High Risk is this area's band among covered Netherlands markets, not an expected outcome. Confidence (high) describes how complete and direct the input data is, not how accurate a prediction would be.

Scoring period 2026-Q3 · high data confidence

Noord-Holland (Netherlands) ranks among the higher-risk markets covered by ProofIndex, with a ProofIndex score of 64/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is housing leverage. This measures how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.

Key risk drivers

Resilience Factors: 96/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.
Housing Leverage: 96/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Income Concentration: 84/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Employment Vulnerability: 53/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Employment Vulnerability: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch occupation classification · Official statistics · Province · vintage 2024. Direct province-level occupation data; COROP areas may inherit adjusted province mix.
Income Concentration: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.
Housing Leverage: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Rental Market Exposure: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Resilience Factors: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.

Frequently asked questions

Is Noord-Holland at risk from AI job losses?

ProofIndex does not forecast job losses. It measures how exposed local incomes are: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing. On that measure, Noord-Holland ranks among the more exposed Netherlands markets. It scores 64/100 (High Risk) overall, and 53/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do.

How exposed is the Noord-Holland housing market to AI automation?

Noord-Holland scores 64/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is housing leverage at 96/100. This measures how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income. Housing leverage scores 96/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 96/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this compares Noord-Holland with other Netherlands markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Noord-Holland rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 64/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Noord-Holland the risk pillars rank housing leverage 96/100, income concentration 84/100, employment vulnerability 53/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is high.

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