AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Noord-Holland

ProofIndex score 64/100 (High Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 64/100 — High Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium confidence in the underlying data

Noord-Holland (Netherlands) ranks among the higher-risk markets ProofIndex tracks, with a ProofIndex score of 64/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is housing leverage — how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.

Key risk drivers

Resilience Factors — 96/100
Local economic cushioning — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock.
Housing Leverage — 96/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Income Concentration — 84/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Employment Vulnerability — 51/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar is computed from published statistics. These are the sources behind this area's score, with the vintage of each and the limitation we know about it.

Employment Vulnerability — CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch occupation classification · Official statistics · Province · vintage 2024. Direct province-level occupation data; COROP areas may inherit adjusted province mix.
Income Concentration — CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.
Housing Leverage — CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.
Rental Market Exposure — CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.
Resilience Factors — CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.

Frequently asked questions

Is Noord-Holland at risk from AI job losses?

Relative to other Netherlands markets, yes — Noord-Holland ranks among the higher-risk markets ProofIndex tracks. It scores 64/100 (High Risk) overall, and 51/100 on employment vulnerability — how much of the local occupation mix overlaps with work today’s AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base sits in work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Noord-Holland housing market to AI automation?

Noord-Holland scores 64/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest single contributor is housing leverage at 96/100 — how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income. Housing leverage — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers — scores 96/100. Local resilience — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock — scores 96/100 and pulls the composite down. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this ranks Noord-Holland against other Netherlands markets rather than against markets abroad.

Why is Noord-Holland rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 64/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Noord-Holland the risk pillars rank housing leverage 96/100, income concentration 84/100, employment vulnerability 51/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

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