AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Gelderland

ProofIndex score 54/100 (Moderate Risk) · high confidence

ProofIndex score: 54/100 (Moderate Risk risk).

Moderate Risk is this area's band among covered Netherlands markets, not an expected outcome. Confidence (high) describes how complete and direct the input data is, not how accurate a prediction would be.

Scoring period 2026-Q3 · high data confidence

Gelderland (Netherlands) shows moderate exposure in ProofIndex’s scoring, with a ProofIndex score of 54/100 (Moderate Risk). The biggest contributor is income concentration. This measures how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.

Key risk drivers

Resilience Factors: 84/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.
Income Concentration: 65/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Housing Leverage: 63/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Employment Vulnerability: 57/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Employment Vulnerability: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch occupation classification · Official statistics · Province · vintage 2024. Direct province-level occupation data; COROP areas may inherit adjusted province mix.
Income Concentration: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.
Housing Leverage: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Rental Market Exposure: CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch rental vacancy pressure · Derived · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses CBS unemployment-benefit, job-vacancy, tenure, income, and WOZ housing series; rental vacancy pressure is a derived proxy, and COROP job vacancies may be allocated from province totals.
Resilience Factors: CBS — Statistics Netherlands
Dutch official regional statistics · Official statistics · Province / COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Official national statistics; COROP-level values may combine direct series with derived regional ratios.

Frequently asked questions

Is Gelderland at risk from AI job losses?

ProofIndex does not forecast job losses. It measures how exposed local incomes are: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing. On that measure, Gelderland sits near the middle of the covered Netherlands markets. It scores 54/100 (Moderate Risk) overall, and 57/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do.

How exposed is the Gelderland housing market to AI automation?

Gelderland scores 54/100 (Moderate Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is income concentration at 65/100. This measures how concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work. Housing leverage scores 63/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 84/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this compares Gelderland with other Netherlands markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Gelderland rated Moderate Risk?

Moderate Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 54/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Gelderland the risk pillars rank income concentration 65/100, housing leverage 63/100, employment vulnerability 57/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is high.

See the full Gelderland report

Full pillar breakdowns, peer benchmarking, and data sources with confidence ratings.

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