AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Arnhem/Nijmegen

ProofIndex score 36/100 (Low Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 36/100 — Low Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium confidence in the underlying data

Arnhem/Nijmegen (Netherlands) is relatively insulated in ProofIndex’s scoring, with a ProofIndex score of 36/100 (Low Risk). The biggest contributor is housing leverage — how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.

Key risk drivers

Resilience Factors — 87/100
Local economic cushioning — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock.
Housing Leverage — 76/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Income Concentration — 27/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Employment Vulnerability — 24/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar is computed from published statistics. These are the sources behind this area's score, with the vintage of each and the limitation we know about it.

Employment Vulnerability — CBS + ProofIndex model
Derived Dutch sub-regional proxy · Proxy · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Derived from province-level official data and local adjustment factors.
Income Concentration — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Housing Leverage — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Rental Market Exposure — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.
Resilience Factors — CBS + ProofIndex model
Dutch COROP estimates · Derived · COROP · vintage 2024-2025. Uses official CBS series with ProofIndex transformations where direct COROP indicators are incomplete.

Frequently asked questions

Is Arnhem/Nijmegen at risk from AI job losses?

Less than most — Arnhem/Nijmegen is relatively insulated among the Netherlands markets ProofIndex tracks. It scores 36/100 (Low Risk) overall, and 24/100 on employment vulnerability — how much of the local occupation mix overlaps with work today’s AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base sits in work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Arnhem/Nijmegen housing market to AI automation?

Arnhem/Nijmegen scores 36/100 (Low Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest single contributor is housing leverage at 76/100 — how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income. Housing leverage — loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers — scores 76/100. Local resilience — savings, benefits, and job diversity that absorb an income shock — scores 87/100 and pulls the composite down. Scores are normalized 0–100 within Netherlands, so this ranks Arnhem/Nijmegen against other Netherlands markets rather than against markets abroad.

Why is Arnhem/Nijmegen rated Low Risk?

Low Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 36/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Arnhem/Nijmegen the risk pillars rank housing leverage 76/100, income concentration 27/100, employment vulnerability 24/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

See the full Arnhem/Nijmegen report

Full pillar breakdowns, peer benchmarking, and data sources with confidence ratings.

Generate the full report · Explore on the map

Other Netherlands markets

View all markets