AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Vermont

ProofIndex score 68/100 (High Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 68/100 — High Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium data confidence

Vermont (United States) ranks among the higher-risk markets covered by ProofIndex, with a ProofIndex score of 68/100 (High Risk). The biggest contributor is employment vulnerability. This measures how exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.

Key risk drivers

Employment Vulnerability — 76/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.
Income Concentration — 76/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Housing Leverage — 68/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Resilience Factors — 66/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Modeled EVI limitation: US Employment Vulnerability (EVI) is modeled, not directly measured. It is inferred from ACS sector and education patterns rather than direct BLS OEWS occupation employment. Because EVI contributes 35% of the score, treat this component as directional.

Employment Vulnerability — US Census Bureau + ProofIndex model
Derived ACS occupation proxy · Proxy · State · vintage 2020-2024 ACS 5-year. Occupation exposure is inferred from sector and education signals, not direct OEWS occupation employment.
Income Concentration — US Census Bureau — ACS 5-year
ACS state indicators · Official statistics · State · vintage 2020-2024 ACS 5-year. Official survey data; state-level values can hide MSA-level concentration.
Housing Leverage — Zillow Research
Zillow home value index · Market data · State · vintage May 2026 file release. Market data series; rental and mortgage stress inputs may be derived from home-value and income relationships.
Rental Market Exposure — Zillow Research
Zillow home value index · Market data · State · vintage May 2026 file release. Market data series; rental and mortgage stress inputs may be derived from home-value and income relationships.
Resilience Factors — US Department of Labor ETA
US safety-net parameters · Official statistics · State · vintage 2026. Statutory and public program parameters; savings and absorption are still proxy estimates.

Frequently asked questions

Is Vermont at risk from AI job losses?

Yes. Vermont ranks among the higher-risk United States markets covered by ProofIndex. It scores 68/100 (High Risk) overall, and 76/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Vermont housing market to AI automation?

Vermont scores 68/100 (High Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is employment vulnerability at 76/100. This measures how exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix. Housing leverage scores 68/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 66/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within United States, so this compares Vermont with other United States markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Vermont rated High Risk?

High Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 68/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Vermont the risk pillars rank employment vulnerability 76/100, income concentration 76/100, housing leverage 68/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

See the full Vermont report

Full pillar breakdowns, peer benchmarking, and data sources with confidence ratings.

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