AI Income Risk · Real Estate

Tennessee

ProofIndex score 53/100 (Moderate Risk) · medium confidence

ProofIndex score: 53/100 — Moderate Risk risk.

Scoring period 2026-Q2 · medium data confidence

Tennessee (United States) shows moderate exposure in ProofIndex’s scoring, with a ProofIndex score of 53/100 (Moderate Risk). The biggest contributor is housing leverage. This measures how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.

Key risk drivers

Housing Leverage — 60/100
How leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income.
Employment Vulnerability — 48/100
How exposed local jobs are to AI automation, based on the area’s occupation mix.
Income Concentration — 39/100
How concentrated local income is in higher-paid, AI-exposed work.
Resilience Factors — 21/100
Local economic buffers such as savings, benefits, and job diversity that can absorb an income shock.

Where this score comes from

Every ProofIndex pillar uses published statistics. Review the sources behind this area's score, when each was released, and its known limitations.

Modeled EVI limitation: US Employment Vulnerability (EVI) is modeled, not directly measured. It is inferred from ACS sector and education patterns rather than direct BLS OEWS occupation employment. Because EVI contributes 35% of the score, treat this component as directional.

Employment Vulnerability — US Census Bureau + ProofIndex model
Derived ACS occupation proxy · Proxy · State · vintage 2020-2024 ACS 5-year. Occupation exposure is inferred from sector and education signals, not direct OEWS occupation employment.
Income Concentration — US Census Bureau — ACS 5-year
ACS state indicators · Official statistics · State · vintage 2020-2024 ACS 5-year. Official survey data; state-level values can hide MSA-level concentration.
Housing Leverage — Zillow Research
Zillow home value index · Market data · State · vintage May 2026 file release. Market data series; rental and mortgage stress inputs may be derived from home-value and income relationships.
Rental Market Exposure — Zillow Research
Zillow home value index · Market data · State · vintage May 2026 file release. Market data series; rental and mortgage stress inputs may be derived from home-value and income relationships.
Resilience Factors — US Department of Labor ETA
US safety-net parameters · Official statistics · State · vintage 2026. Statutory and public program parameters; savings and absorption are still proxy estimates.

Frequently asked questions

Is Tennessee at risk from AI job losses?

Tennessee has moderate exposure and sits near the middle of the covered United States markets. It scores 53/100 (Moderate Risk) overall, and 48/100 on employment vulnerability, which measures how much local work overlaps with tasks AI can already do. ProofIndex measures how exposed local incomes are, not how many jobs will go: a higher score means more of the local wage base comes from work that AI is changing.

How exposed is the Tennessee housing market to AI automation?

Tennessee scores 53/100 (Moderate Risk) on ProofIndex, which blends how exposed local incomes are to AI with how leveraged the local housing market is. The largest contributor is housing leverage at 60/100. This measures how leveraged local mortgage borrowers are, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income. Housing leverage scores 60/100, based on loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and price-to-income among local borrowers. Local resilience scores 21/100. Savings, benefits, and job diversity reduce the final score. Scores are normalized 0–100 within United States, so this compares Tennessee with other United States markets. It cannot be compared directly with markets abroad.

Why is Tennessee rated Moderate Risk?

Moderate Risk is the risk tier ProofIndex assigns to a composite score of 53/100. The composite weights employment vulnerability at 35%, income concentration at 25%, housing leverage at 25%, and subtracts local resilience at 15%. For Tennessee the risk pillars rank housing leverage 60/100, employment vulnerability 48/100, income concentration 39/100. Confidence in the underlying data for this area is medium.

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